The Houston Rockets pulled off a stunning 104-100 victory over the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday, November 26, 2025, at Chase Center in San Francisco — and they did it as 2.5-point underdogs. The win wasn’t just a surprise; it was a seismic shift in momentum, flipping betting lines, fan expectations, and even expert projections on their head. The Rockets, who entered the game with a 12-4 overall record and a 7-2 road mark, outlasted a Warriors team that had won six of its last eight home games and was favored to win by both the spread and the moneyline. But basketball, as always, doesn’t care about odds. It cares about execution — and on this night, Houston had it.
How the Game Unfolded: A Fourth-Quarter Masterclass
The scoring was anything but predictable. The Warriors came out hot, dropping 25 points in the first quarter and exploding for 34 in the second — a blistering pace that had fans at Chase Center believing this would be another routine home win. By halftime, Golden State led 59-47. But then came the twist: the Rockets’ defense locked in. They held the Warriors to just 17 points in the third quarter — their lowest output of the season in any quarter. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense, led by a rejuvenated Jae'Sean Tate returning from injury, found rhythm. He scored 18 points in the second half, including four critical baskets in the final four minutes. The Rockets outscored Golden State 30-24 in the final frame, turning a 12-point deficit into a four-point win.
At 74-74, the game flipped. That was the lead change point, the moment the Warriors’ momentum cracked. The Rockets didn’t just score — they controlled tempo. They forced six turnovers in the fourth, including a key steal by Alperen Şengün that led to a fast-break dunk and a 98-94 lead with 1:32 left. The Warriors missed their final three three-pointers. The crowd fell silent. The underdog had arrived.
Betting Chaos: The Under Wins, the Underdog Covers
Even before tip-off, the betting world was divided. The Golden State Warriors were listed at -162 on the moneyline — meaning you had to risk $162 to win $100. The Rockets? +136. A $100 bet on Houston would net $136 if they won outright. They did. And it wasn’t close. The total points line was set at 224.5. The actual combined score? 204. That’s a 20.5-point swing. Bettors who took the under walked away smiling. The public, according to OddsCrowd.com, had poured 52% of bets and 51% of the money on the Warriors — a classic case of name recognition over form. But the Rockets had been quietly efficient: they’d won nine of their last 11 games, and their road defense ranked fifth in the league.
Even the projections got it wrong. TeamRankings.com had predicted Houston would score 110.5 and Golden State 114.0. The actual numbers? 104 and 100. The discrepancy wasn’t minor — it was a full 20-point error. Analysts who trusted historical averages — Warriors averaging 109.7 points at home against Houston — failed to account for Houston’s recent surge. This wasn’t the same Rockets team from last season. This was a squad with purpose.
Historical Context: Warriors Dominate, But Times Have Changed
Head-to-head, the Warriors have owned the Rockets for years. Since their first meeting, the two teams have clashed 80 times — with Golden State winning 51, Houston just 29. In their last meeting on May 5, 2025, in Houston, the Warriors won 103-89. The narrative was clear: Warriors win. But that game was in the playoffs. This was the NBA Cup. Different stakes. Different pressure. And different rosters. Steven Adams, the Warriors’ defensive anchor, was out with an ankle injury. Jae’Sean Tate, Houston’s gritty forward, was back. That alone changed the physicality of the game. The Rockets didn’t just win — they outmuscled a team that had relied on star power and shooting. This time, they didn’t have enough.
Even the Warriors’ home scoring average in the tournament — 119.8 points — meant nothing. Houston held them to 100. It was the first time in 12 home games this season that Golden State failed to break 110. The streak ended. The confidence wavered.
What This Means for the NBA Cup and Beyond
This win isn’t just a footnote. It’s a statement. The Rockets, once written off as a rebuilding team, are now 13-4 — tied for the best record in the Western Conference. They’ve won five of their last six away games. Meanwhile, the Warriors, now 10-11, are showing cracks. Their last five games: 1-4. Their last five against the spread: 1-4. Their defense? Inconsistent. Their bench? Overmatched. This loss doesn’t just hurt their seeding — it hurts their psyche.
For Houston, the path forward looks brighter than ever. They’ve got depth, discipline, and a coach — Ime Udoka — who’s turning hustle into results. The Rockets are no longer just a team to watch. They’re a team to fear.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did the Rockets cover the 2.5-point spread despite being underdogs?
The Rockets won by four points (104-100), which means they covered the 2.5-point spread even though they were expected to lose. A bet on Houston at +2.5 would have won because they lost by less than 2.5 or won outright — in this case, they won. Their improved defense and Tate’s return were key factors in outperforming projections.
Why did the total points fall so far below the 224.5 line?
The Warriors, known for their high-octane offense, were held to their lowest scoring quarter of the season in the third (17 points). Houston’s defense tightened, forcing 19 turnovers overall. The game slowed down after halftime, with both teams prioritizing defense over pace. The 204-point total was the lowest combined score in any Warriors home game this season.
What impact did Jae'Sean Tate’s return have on the game?
Tate, returning from a hamstring injury, played 34 minutes and scored 18 points with 7 rebounds and 3 steals. His physicality disrupted Golden State’s perimeter defense, and his mid-range game opened driving lanes for Şengün. His presence lifted Houston’s defensive rating by 11.3 points per 100 possessions compared to games he missed.
How did the absence of Steven Adams affect the Warriors?
Adams, the Warriors’ starting center, was sidelined due to an ankle injury. Without him, Golden State lost its interior defense and rebounding anchor. Houston outrebounded them 47-36, including 14 offensive boards that led to 19 second-chance points — a season high for the Rockets. The Warriors’ bench couldn’t compensate for his absence.
What does this mean for the Rockets’ playoff chances?
This win boosts Houston’s position in the Western Conference standings, tying them with the top teams. With a 13-4 record and a tough road schedule still ahead, they’re now legitimate contenders. Their defense ranks in the top five, and their depth — especially with Tate and Şengün playing at elite levels — makes them dangerous in a potential playoff series.
Is this a sign the Warriors are declining?
It’s a warning sign. Golden State is 1-4 in their last five games and has lost three straight home games by double digits. Their reliance on Steph Curry and Klay Thompson is becoming predictable. Without consistent bench production or interior defense, they’re vulnerable to teams with physicality and discipline — like Houston. If they don’t fix their defense soon, they could miss the top-four seed.
