Shepard vs Johnson: Week 7 Waiver Wire Battle for Tampa Bay Receivers
Fantasy managers are staring down a difficult choice: snag Sterling Shepard, the 31‑year‑old veteran, or grab rookie Tez Johnson, who’s been buzzing in Tampa Bay’s back‑field? The decision hinges on a flurry of injuries that have gutted the Buccaneers’ receiving corps and a high‑scoring Week 7 showdown against the Detroit Lions. With the waiver deadline looming on Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025, at 10:51 AM UTC, the stakes feel almost as high as a playoff game.
Why the Receiving Corps Is in Flux
Mike Evans (hamstring), Chris Godwin (fibula), Bucky Irving (shoulder/foot), Jalen McMillan (neck) and Emeka Egbuka (hamstring) are all listed as questionable or out, according to the Oct 19, 2025 RotoBaller waiver‑wire report. Those five injuries represent more than half of Tampa Bay’s offensive skill‑position depth. Tampa Bay Buccaneers now rely heavily on who’s left standing in the slot and the wide‑out.
Route Volume Tells a Tale
Bruce Matson, the YouTube analyst behind the “Tez Johnson VS Kameron Johnson VS Sterling Shepard MUST Get Week 7 Waiver Wire STASHES” video, broke down the route counts through six weeks. Shepard has run a whopping 166 routes – that’s roughly two‑thirds of the team’s total passing attempts. Johnson is next with 68 routes, and Kameron Johnson trails far behind at 22. The data suggests Shepard is the clear‑cut primary target, but the rookie’s numbers have been climbing fast.
Production Numbers: Who’s Scoring More?
FantraxHQ’s Week 7 MOP rankings put Johnson at WR17 in Half‑PPR leagues, while Shepard sits at WR50. In plain English, Johnson is pulling in more fantasy points right now, even if his target share is lower. The contrast is striking: a seasoned pro with a deep route tree versus a rookie riding a wave of recent touchdowns.
What the Experts Are Saying
RotoBaller’s waiver analysis (Oct 19) says: “Shepard remains one of the few healthy Buccaneer receivers… should be a solid low‑end WR2 play and prioritized on the waiver wires this week.” The same piece notes the Lions‑Buccaneers game is projected at a 53.5‑point total – a potential gold mine for whoever catches the most balls. Meanwhile, Matson’s video adds: “Shepard ran 20 routes, Tez ran 22… could be the wide receiver that just steps in, gets more workload.” It’s a subtle hint that the rookie might be on the cusp of a breakout.
Coaching Angle: Liam Coen’s Puzzle
Offensive coordinator Liam Coen now has a puzzle: re‑distribute the 8.2 targets per game Evans used to get and the 7.8 Godwin enjoyed before they went down. Early in the season, Evans and Godwin together covered about 16 targets each game. With them out, Coen must split that volume among Shepard, Johnson, rookie Kameron Johnson and tight end Cade Otton.
Key Facts for Your Waiver Decision
- Shepard: 166 routes, WR50 rank, 31 years old, former New York Giant (2016‑2022).
- Johnson: 68 routes, WR17 rank, 22 years old, rookie season.
- Injured Bucs receivers: Evans, Godwin, Irving, McMillan, Egbuka.
- Week 7 matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit LionsFord Field, projected 53.5‑point total.
- Waiver deadline: Tue, Oct 21, 2025 10:51 AM UTC.
What This Means for Your Lineup
If you crave consistency, Shepard’s experience and massive route share make him a safe low‑end WR2 in a high‑scoring game. He’s likely to see a bump in targets, especially in the red‑zone where his veteran savvy shines.
If you’re chasing upside, Johnson’s recent production suggests he could be the breakout slot man. He’s already posted a WR17 ranking, meaning he’s delivering points at a rate comparable to elite starters. In a game expected to light up the scoreboard, even a modest increase in snap count could translate to a solid flex play.
Bottom line: Shepard offers a floor; Johnson offers a ceiling. Your team’s needs – whether you need a reliable starter or a high‑risk high‑reward swing – will dictate which name lands on your waiver claim.
Looking Ahead: Week 8 and Beyond
Both receivers could see storylines shift quickly. If any of the injured veterans return to practice, Shepard’s target share might dip. Conversely, if the Buccaneers continue to lean on the slot, Johnson could see an even larger role. Keep an eye on the official injury reports released each Monday – they often dictate the waiver market for the next week.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this waiver decision affect fantasy owners with a flex spot?
Owners with a flex spot can treat Shepard as a low‑risk starter and Johnson as a high‑upside plug. Picking Shepard secures a dependable WR2 floor, while Johnson can provide a bounce‑back if you need a boost on a high‑scoring night. The choice hinges on your roster depth and tolerance for variance.
What led to the Buccaneers’ receiving corps being so depleted?
A spate of injuries in early October—hamstring strains to Mike Evans, a fibula fracture for Chris Godwin, a shoulder/foot issue for Bucky Irving, a neck injury to Jalen McMillan, and another hamstring problem for Emeka Egbuka—left Tampa Bay with only three healthy wideouts. The cascade forced the coaching staff to rely heavily on the remaining bodies.
Who is more likely to see increased red‑zone targets?
Shepard, given his size and veteran route running, traditionally draws more red‑zone looks. However, Johnson’s recent touchdown cadence suggests he’s getting trusted near the end zone, so both could see a bump—Shepard for volume, Johnson for efficiency.
What’s the projected point total for the Buccaneers‑Lions game?
Sportsbooks are listing a combined 53.5‑point total, making it one of the highest‑scoring matchups of the week. That kind of environment usually translates into a flood of passing yards and touchdowns, ideal for wide receivers.
When does the waiver wire close for Week 7?
Most major fantasy platforms lock the waiver wire on Tuesday, Oct 21, 2025, at 10:51 AM UTC. Make your claims early to avoid missing out on either player.
Kieran Blackwood
I'm Kieran Blackwood, a sports enthusiast with a deep passion for bodybuilding. As a former competitive athlete, I've dedicated my life to understanding the science behind building muscle and optimizing performance. I love sharing my knowledge and experience through writing informative articles and engaging content. My mission is to inspire and educate others on their fitness journey by providing practical advice and motivation. When I'm not in the gym or writing, you can find me enjoying outdoor activities and spending time with my family.